Stupid Predictions™: UFC Ultimate Fight Night 25

Posted: September 16, 2011 in MMA
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Due to a major blogging assignment for one of my other blogs, I haven’t done anything but Stupid Predictions™ lately, but there have been so many cards, that’s still plenty of content. Still, I plan to get back on track soon. In the meantime, Ultimate Fight Night 25 is on free TV this weekend, and my record needs so improvement (25-16, 61%, in main cards, and 51-33, 61% overall). Here’s how I believe it’ll go down on Saturday.

AND HERE . . . WE . . . GO! (Is there anything more pathetic than channeling Mike Goldberg?)

Jake Ellenberger vs. Jake Shields

As Erika and I discussed on Fight Fans Radio on Thursday, Shields is an exceptional submissions fighter . . . but nothing else. Ellenberger is young, hungry, talented, and poised. Expect Ellenberger to pummel Shields on the feet, going to the ground only when he chooses to do so, where he’ll pummel Shields some more with brutal ground-and-pound. The best Shields can hope for is to lose a a one-sided decision, but it shouldn’t last nearly that long.

The stupid pick: Ellenberger by KO/TKO
Probst picks: Ellenberger by close decision

Court McGee vs. Dongi Yang

If it stays on its feet, it’s anybody’s fight, though Yang has the advantage. If it goes to the ground, McGee will dominate. McGee will get it to the ground.

The stupid pick: McGee
Probst picks: McGee by 3rd-round KO

Jonathan Brookins vs. Erik Koch

Koch is a winner, and he wins with style. Brookins showed composure in his fight against Michael Johnson by weathering a storm in the first round, but he’s still learning. The layoff probably won’t help.

The stupid pick: Koch
Probst picks: Koch by close decision

Alan Belcher vs. Jason MacDonald

As with Brookins, the layoff won’t help, but as Luke Rockhold proved, it’s not a death knell for a fighter’s chances. Belcher is simply better, and he’ll win this.

The stupid pick: Belcher
Probst picks: Belcher by 2nd-round KO

Cody McKenzie vs. Vagner Rocha

This is a tough pick because I can see where both fighters are vulnerable. It’s kind of a toss up, so I’m going to go with the personality I like best. Don’t judge me. These are stupid predictions, after all.

The stupid pick: McKenzie by guillotine choke
Probst picks: Rocha by decision

Shamar Bailey vs. Evan Dunham

Evan Dunham is a another winner. His only real loss was to a reinvented Melvin Guillard, and there’s no shame in that loss. (Dunham beat Sean Sherk. You know it. I know it. And everyone in the world except for two judges know it.) Although Bailey made the most of his one shot in the UFC, I don’t know why he was given it.

The stupid pick: Dunham by KO/TKO
Probst picks: Dunham by 2nd-round submission

Lance Benoist vs. Matt Riddle

Benoist is undefeated — all finishes — but in the minor leagues. He’s earned his right to prove he’s ready for prime time, but he faces a tough UFC veteran in Matt Riddle, who might need a win to keep his job.

The stupid pick: Riddle by decision
Probst picks: Riddle by decision

Ken Stone vs. Donny Walker

Both of these fighters finish fights, but have done nothing but lose since getting their shot at the big time (i.e., Zuffa). Walker is much more experienced without being “old.”

The stupid pick: Walker by stoppage
Probst picks: Stone by 3rd-round submission

Seth Baczynski vs. Clay Harvison

Baczynski’s one shot at Zuffa was a loss. He then went on to win two fights (both stoppages) earning back his roster spot. Harvison, and Ultimate Fighter veteran, has finished every fight he’s won (record: 7-1), with one being at the Ultimate Fighter 13 finale.

The stupid pick: Harvison
Probst picks: Baczynski by 2nd-round KO

Mike Stumpf vs. T.J. Waldburger

Stumpf is a last-minute replacement, which has to make you ask: If he’s the best person to fight on the card, why wasn’t he on there in the first place? Still, he’s a Team Curran fighter with lots of named fighters training him, he finishes fights, and his two loses were a unanimous decision and a majority decision. I’m going with the new guy. Just a stupid hunch.

The stupid pick: Stumpf
Probst picks: Waldburger by late stoppage or decision

Mike Lullo vs. Robert Peralta

Both of these guys have good records and finish fights. Edson Barboza beat Lullo senseless with leg kicks in Lullo’s one shot at the big time, but Peralta has never had that shot. Another stupid hunch rules the day.

The stupid pick: Peralta by stoppage
Probst picks: Lullo by second-round submission

Justin Edwards vs. Jorge Lopez

Edwards has been fairly impressive in his minor league run, but I don’t know anything about Lopez.

The stupid pick: No pick.
Probst picks: Lopez by second-round KO

Make sure to listen to Fight Fans Radio Monday through Thursday at 3pm for MMA news and analysis. Also listen in on Saturdays at 3pm before fight cards for my live Stupid Predictions™ segment.

Follow me on Twitter @MMADork
Follow Fight Fans Radio on Twitter @fightfansradio
Follow Erika Lewis on Twitter @giftofjab
Follow the Ultimate Fighting Championship on Twitter @UFC
Follow Jake Ellenberger on Twitter @EllenbergerMMA
Follow Jake Shields on Twitter @jakeshieldsajj
Follow Court McGee on Twitter @Court_McGee
Follow Dongi Yang on Twitter @dongiOXyang if you can read Korean
Follow Erik Jon Koch on Twitter @NEWBREED04
Follow Jonathan Brookins on Twitter @J_Brookins
Follow Alan Belcher on Twitter @alanbelcherufc
Follow Jason MacDonald on Twitter @jaymac185
Follow Cody McKenzie on Twitter @TheCodyMcKenzie
Follow Vagner Rocha on Twitter @Vagner_Rocha . . . maybe. It’s an unverified account.
Follow Shamar Bailey on Twitter if you can find his account. I couldn’t.
Follow Evan Dunham on Twitter @evandunham155
Follow Lance Benoist on Twitter if you can find his account. I couldn’t.
Follow Matt Riddle on Twitter if you can find his account. I couldn’t (which is surprising).
Follow Ken Stone on Twitter @K3nStone . . . maybe. It’s an unverified account.
Follow Donny Walker on Twitter @EagleEyeMMA
Follow Seth Baczynski on Twitter @Sethbmma . . . maybe. It’s an unverified account.
Follow Clay Harvison on Twitter @ClayHeavyMetal
Follow Mike Stumpf on Twitter if you can find his account. I couldn’t.
Follow T.J. Waldburger on Twitter @TJWaldburger . . . maybe. It’s an unverified account.
Follow Mike Lullo on Twitter if you can find his account. I couldn’t.
Follow Robert Peralta on Twitter if you can find his account. I couldn’t.
Follow Justin Edwards on Twitter if you can find his account. I couldn’t.
Follow Jorge Lopez on Twitter @JorgeLopezWFT . . . maybe. It’s an unverified account.

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