Stupid Predictions™: DC Under Seige (UFC Live 6 at the Verizon Center)

Posted: September 30, 2011 in MMA
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Finally, the UFC comes to my backyard, the nation’s capital. Let’s hope that this is the first of many.

Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson for the UFC Bantamweight Championship

Johnson is like the cartoon version of a Tazmanian devil, but Cruz is hard to hit no matter how many strikes you’re throwing. Cruz is too sharp to lose his title to Johnson, but bantamweights anywhere near each other in talent level can’t possibly knock out each other.

The Stupid Pick: Cruz by decision
Probst’s Pick: Cruz by decision

Charlie Brenneman vs. Anthony Johnson

We just interviewed Brenneman on Fight Fans Radio, so you can get his take here. Although Johnson refers to his base as wrestling, he’s known for his striking power, making this is a classic match up of a striker and grappler. The one who forces the game to be played on his field wins.

The Stupid Pick: Brenneman by decision
Probst’s Pick: Johnson by 3rd-round KO

Stefan Struve vs. Pat Barry

Both of these guys need to get back on track, but these two are far too reckless to make this pick reasonable. On top of that, their friendly back-and-forth on Twitter has me concerned that the fight might not be taken as seriously by the fighters. Barry certainly has a reputation for holding back against his opponents. Still, in the end, this should be an explosive barn-burner. I’m going to flip a coin and say that Barry will get the first knockout-blow.

The Stupid Pick: Barry by 1st-round KO/TKO
Probst’s Pick: Struve via 2nd-round rear-naked choke

Matt Wiman vs. Mac Danzig

Everyone should want Wiman to win because watching him embarrass himself after losing a decision is unsettling. He’s a much improved fighter, so he’ll probably avoid a meltdown by getting the win. Even though the stoppage in their last fight was inappropriate, the fact is that Danzig was put in a very bad position very quickly. Danzig is also only a .500 fighter in the UFC, after starting 2-0.

The Stupid Pick: Wiman by 2nd-round submission
Probst’s Pick: Wiman by decision

Yves Edwards vs. Rafaello Oliveira

Oliveira has been going to decision far more often than finishing fights, and that’s in the minor leagues. His one shot at the big time was a loss. This is not going to hold up against a crafty veteran looking to bounce back from a brutal KO loss.

The Stupid Pick: Edwards by decision
Probst’s Pick:

Shane Roller vs. T.J. Grant

This is a tough fight to pick. Both fighters have been up and down. It’s difficult (i.e., stupid) to predict which one will be up and which one will be down on Saturday. T.J. Grant has a more impressive resume, but Roller finishes fights.

The Stupid Pick: Roller by 3rd-round submission
Probst’s Pick:

Paul Sass vs. Michael Johnson

Michael Johnson is one of the rising stars of the UFC, having come in second place on the Ultimate Fighter reality show, and he’s got a lot going for him. However, Sass has a perfect record, and has finished all but one of his fights, mostly in the first round, including his triangle choke of Mark Holst at UFC 120. Although Johnson has shown knockout power, I suspect this will get to the ground where Sass will put on a show.

The Stupid Pick: Sass by 2nd-round submission
Probst’s Pick:

Byron Bloodworth vs. Mike Easton

Dammit! Just as I finish my final edit of this post, I get wind that Jeff Hougland is out, and Bloodworth is in.

Mike Easton is a local fighter, having held the UWC bantamweight championship belt. He can knock you out or submit you, but he has the conditioning to go the distance and win a decision. I’ll give the nod to the local guy, having grown up on the same streets of Anacostia on which my mother grew up, though a few generations later when those streets were much tougher. Also, Byron has taken the fight with three days notice and couldn’t make weight. I doubt he’s ready.

The Stupid Pick: Easton by decision
Probst’s Pick:

Josh Neer vs. Keith Wisniewski

Josh Neer! The Dentist is back? For the third time? Well, he’s 6-1 since leaving, with every single one of those fights being finished. Wisniewski has been in the obscure minors his entire career, but this isn’t a situation where the young buck is finally getting his chance. He’s actually two years older than Neer with a much less impressive set of wins. I’ll take the UFC vet with career wins over Mac Danzig, Din Thomas, Joe Stevenson, and Melvin Guillard.

The Stupid Pick: Neer by 2nd-round submission
Probst’s Pick:

Walel Watson vs. Joseph Sandoval

This is another case of some up-and-coming fighters being given their shot. There’s nothing wrong with that, of course, but I can’t make a pick here. I haven’t seen either fighter in action, and none have fights against well-established fighters. Watson appears to have a better fight camp, but looks can be deceiving. I’m just going to sit back and hope for a good fight.

The Stupid Pick: No pick
Probst’s Pick:

Make sure to listen to Fight Fans Radio Monday through Thursday at 3pm for MMA news and analysis. Also listen in on Saturdays at 3pm before fight cards for my live Stupid Predictions™ segment.

Follow me on Twitter @MMADork
Follow Fight Fans Radio on Twitter @fightfansradio
Follow Erika Lewis on Twitter @FightFan_Erika
Follow the Ultimate Fighting Championship on Twitter @UFC
Follow Jason Probst on Twitter @jasonprobst
Follow Dominick Cruz on Twitter @TheDomin8r
Follow Demetrious Johnson on Twitter @MightyMouseUFC
Follow Charlie Brenneman on Twitter @SpaniardMMA
Follow Anthony Johnson on Twitter @RumbleJohnson
Follow Stefan Struve on Twitter @StefanStruve
Follow Pat Barry on Twitter @HypeOrDie
Follow Matt Wiman on Twitter if you can find his account. I couldn’t.
Follow Mac Danzig on Twitter @macdanzigmma
Follow Yves Edwards on Twitter @thugjitsumaster
Follow Rafaello Oliveira on Twitter @RafaelloTractor …maybe. This account is unverified.
Follow Shane Roller on Twitter @shaneroller
Follow T.J. Grant on Twitter @TJ_Grant
Follow Paul Sass on Twitter @Paul_Sass
Follow Michael Johnson on Twitter @FollowTheMenace
Follow Byron Bloodworth on Twitter @ByronBloodworth …maybe. This account is unverified.
Follow Mike Easton on Twitter @mikeeastonmma
Follow Josh Neer on Twitter @joshneer …maybe. This account is unverified.
Follow Keith Wisniewski on Twitter if you can find his account. I couldn’t.
Follow Walel Watson on Twitter @135Gazelle …maybe. This account is unverified.
Follow Joseph Sandoval on Twitter @JosephSandoval1 …maybe. This account is unverified.

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