Stupid Predictions™: UFC 136, Edgar v. Maynard 3 and the Birth of a Drinking Game

Posted: October 7, 2011 in MMA
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

This card has two title fights, the return of Chael Sonnen, who will fight an American hero, a reinvented lightweight dynamo, and a much-called-for rematch. However, the real question is: Between Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg, who will make the most embarrassingly ignorant statement? Honestly, it’s getting to the point of qualifying as a drinking game (Dumb and Dumber?). Before you jump on my bandwagon, though, make sure you have a name in mind to replace these guys if they were fired. I’m afraid we don’t have any more qualified people willing and able to do the job.

On a side note, this is the second card in a row for which Jason Probst didn’t make picks for the undercard. I point it out merely as a curiosity. Is he crying uncle on the difficulty of picking undercard matches? With such quality names being forced to the undercard due to a rising tide of fighter ability, I’d expect people to be more, not less, willing to pick undercard matches. My guess is that Jason has been too busy. I hope so. I want to see how we stack up for future cards.

Gray Maynard vs. Frankie Edgar for the UFC Lightweight Championship

For the life of me, I don’t see how Maynard earned a draw in Edgar-Maynard 2. Even if he won that first round 10-7, I don’t see how he could have won any of the remaining rounds, and Edgar probably deserved a 10-8 for one of the rounds (round 3, IIRC). For those claiming that the first round should have been scored 10-6, news alert: That’s not allowed. I see Edgar doing what he did for rounds 2-5, but this time he’ll do it for round 1 as well. Still, a decision is likely, and who knows how the judges will score it?

The Stupid Pick: Edgar by decision
Probst’s Pick: Edgar by split decision

Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian for the UFC Featherweight Championship

Florian is a choker but can’t handle championship rounds anyway. Also, Florian has exactly one fight in this weight class, and he looked like a skeleton. This weight class is meant for Aldo, and it’s his as long as he wants it. Absent a fit of narcolepsy, Aldo takes this one easily. If he does fall asleep, this is still and even-money fight.

The Stupid Pick: Aldo by 4th-round KO/TKO
Probst’s Pick: Aldo by 4th-round KO/TKO

Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann

Stann has had a resurgence and is a fan-favorite, but clearly he’s a one-dimensional fighter. Of the only wrestling-centric fighters he’s faced during this good run, they’ve either had no success in the UFC or beat Stann (i.e., Phil Davis). Sonnen will hold down Stann and ground and pound him, earning Sonnen a clear decision. For those who think that Stann will win based on Stann’s triangle choke victory over Mike Massenzio and Sonnen’s perceived susceptibility to that submission, I want you to consider the level of fighter that’s beaten Sonnen that way. Stann is no Anderson Silva or Demian Maia on the ground. Besides, Massenzio is a mediocre fighter.

The Stupid Pick: Sonnen by decision or late stoppage
Probst’s Pick: Sonnen by decision

Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon

What can I say about Guillard that neither I nor anyone else have said about him? He’s a brand new fighter. He always had gifts, but now he’s got his head on straight, presumably because of Greg Jackson’s influence. Guillard will roll all over Lauzon.

The Stupid Pick: Guillard by murder, err… I mean, 1st round KO/TKO
Probst’s Pick: Guillard by 2nd-round stoppage

Nam Phan vs. Leonard Garcia

I don’t see any reason for this fight to go any differently than the first one. Let’s just hope the judges don’t drop the ball again.

The Stupid Pick: Phan by decision
Probst’s Pick: Phan by unanimous decision

Jeremy Stephens vs. Anthony Pettis

Stephens is tough, but he can be submitted and Pettis is a higher class of fighter. Pettis will get this to the ground and get his first win in the UFC.

The Stupid Pick: Pettis by 2nd-round submission
Probst’s Pick: No pick

Demian Maia vs. Jorge Santiago

I’m definitely a fan of Maia, and despite his loss to Munoz, that match showed that he’s added decent striking to his game. I look for him to keep the fight standing, likely getting the decision over Santiago. If, however, Santiago gets this to the ground, Maia will do enough to earn a much clearer decision win. If Maia manages to get a submission, I won’t be terribly surprised.

The Stupid Pick: Maia by decision
Probst’s Pick: No pick

Stipe Miocic vs. Joey Beltran

Miocic is another undefeated prospect, having done very well in the minor circuits, so he’s earned his shot. He’s up against a tough but mediocre fighter in Beltran.

The Stupid Pick: Miocic by 2nd-round KO/TKO
Probst’s Pick: No pick

Steve Cantwell vs. Mike Massenzio

Oooooo, did I just call Massenzio a mediocre fighter above? Yeah, sorry about that. This is a loser-leaves-town match, but honestly, the winner should probably go as well. The middleweight division is far too deep to waste a roster spot on either of these guys. Flip a coin.

The Stupid Pick: Cantwell by KO/TKO
Probst’s Pick: No pick

Aaron Simpson vs. Eric Schafer

Shafer hasn’t beaten anyone. Simpson has, but he hasn’t put anyone away in a while.

The Stupid Pick: Simpson by decision
Probst’s Pick: No pick

Tiequan Zhang vs. Darren Elkins

This is a tough fight to pick, but I have a hunch. China is the next market being targeted by the UFC for expansion. Maybe Elkins will get a victory, but I suspect the UFC matched him against Zhang because they agree with me that Zhang will be too much for Elkins to handle.

The Stupid Pick: Zhang by 2nd-round submission
Probst’s Pick: No pick

Make sure to listen to Fight Fans Radio Monday through Thursday at 3pm for MMA news and analysis. Also listen in on Saturdays at 3pm before fight cards for my live Stupid Predictions™ segment.

Follow me on Twitter @MMADork
Follow Fight Fans Radio on Twitter @fightfansradio
Follow Erika Lewis on Twitter @FightFan_Erika
Follow the Ultimate Fighting Championship on Twitter @UFC
Follow Jason Probst on Twitter @jasonprobst
Follow Frankie Edgar on Twitter @FrankieEdgar
Follow Gray Maynard on Twitter @GrayMaynard
Follow Jose Aldo on Twitter @josealdojunior
Follow Kenny Florian on Twitter @kennyflorian
Follow Chael Sonnen on Twitter @sonnench (this is an unverified account that Sonnen continues to disclaim, but everyone believes it’s his)
Follow Brian Stann on Twitter @BrianStann
Follow Melvin Guillard on Twitter @Young__Assassin
Follow Joe Lauzon on Twitter @JoeLauzon
Follow Nam Phan on Twitter @NamPhanMMA
Follow Leonard Garcia on Twitter @badboygarcia
Follow Jeremy Stephens on Twitter @LiLHeathenMMA
Follow Anthony Pettis on Twitter @Showtimepettis
Follow Demian Maia on Twitter @demianmaia
Follow Jorge Santiago on Twitter @SantiagoMMA
Follow Stipe Miocic on Twitter @smiocic
Follow Joey Beltran on Twitter @mexicutioner760
Follow Steve Cantwell on Twitter @stevencantwell (unverified account with only a single tweet)
Follow Mike Massenzio on Twitter @MikeMassenzio
Follow Aaron Simpson on Twitter @aaronsimpson
Follow Eric Schafer on Twitter if you can find his Twitter handle. I couldn’t.
Follow Tiequan Zhang on Twitter if you can find his Twitter handle. I couldn’t.
Follow Darren Elkins on Twitter @Darren_Elkins

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