Stupid Predictions™: UFC on Fox 1 Postmortem

Posted: November 13, 2011 in Fandom, MMA
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Oh boy, this was great!

Another exciting card, most of which was on Facebook. At least one other fight should have been on Fox, but I’m not going to whine about it (too much). Let’s get to it.

Lucas-Rosa: Mouthpiecegate

Rosa dropped to 205 for this fight. That was probably a good move considering how badly he gassed out in his UFC debut. Lucas, on the other hand, seemed to gas out in the first round. He also had nothing but failed takedowns, and as I’ve discussed before, that works against you. Failed takedown attempts count against you for Octagon control and Effective Aggression, and because they fail, there’s no grappling available on which the fighter can rely to win the round.

Rosa wins the decision 28-28, 30-26, 30-26. The 28-28 score suggests that some ridiculous judge thought Lucas actually won the fight. That is, he scored it 29-28 Lucas, then Lucas lost a point due to the mouthpiece issue, giving us the 28-28 score. Please fix this, athletic commissions. Get the judges classes, and clean up and annotate the rules.

My record: 0-1

Pierce-Bradley: The Rematch

An exciting fight.

This fight was a bit more exciting. (That’s an understatement.) Bradley is quite strong, but technique and conditioning matter, too. Midway through the 2nd round, Bradley tired. To his credit, he continued to fight hard, but the fight quickly shifted in Pierce’s favor. One notable example came late in the 3rd round. Bradley took down Pierce, but Pierce made the most of it by reaching backwards and throwing hammerfists to Bradley’s head while Bradley struggled to control him. Again, we have an idiotic judge that gave the fight to Bradley.

Pierce wins the split decision 29-28, 27-30, 29-28.

My record: 1-1

Caceres-Escovedo: Who Cares?

This kind of crap works only against bad fighters.

For all our criticism of Mike Goldberg, you have to give him credit for somehow making it seem as if these two fighters matter. The loser is almost certainly gone from the UFC. Well, goodbye, Escovedo. I wish I could say it’s been nice, but you’re done with the major leagues.

Caceres wins the decision 30-27, 30-27, 30-27.

My record: 1-2

Semerzier-Peralta: Headbuttgate

I almost got my 2nd-round knockout that I predicted, but it wasn’t meant to be. It came in the 3rd round. Replay shows that an unintentional head butt might have done the damage. We’ll see what the athletic commission says after their review. For now, I’ll take the win.

My record: 2-2

Yamamoto-Uyenoyama: A Japanese MMA Fighter Had to Win This One

This is the fight in a nutshell. Yamamoto had no answer for Uyenoyama's grappling.

Again, another close call on a potential tap. It appeared that Yamamoto might have tapped, but remember that the tap must be clear. Tapping twice doesn’t cut it; there must be three clear taps. A fighter can change their mind “mid tap.” I didn’t see a replay, so I can’t form a clear opinion, though. For what it’s worth, my initial instinct was that it wasn’t a tap.

As for the rest of the fight, Uyenoyama did what all grapplers should do. Just like Paul Saas a couple of cards ago, Uyenoyama constantly tried to take the fight to the ground, even at the expense of taking a few shots. If you’re a smart grappler, that’s what you do against a striker.

Uyenoyama wins the decision 30-27, 30-26, 30-27

My record: 3-2

Johnson-Harvison: Battle of the Disappointing TUF Alumni

See your doctor if you suffer from Premature Celebration.

Look at that picture. Which should I go with here? “Johnson wins by Karate Kid crane maneuver” or “Zombie attacks helpless, panicked Harvison”? Johnson’s job is saved, which will make most fans happy. He has a charming and humble personality. Harvison might still have a place on the UFC roster too, but we’ll have to wait and see on that.

My record: 4-2

Swanson-Lamas: How to Submit a BJJ Black Belt

Lamas submits a BJJ black belt? Geez. Didn’t see that coming. I need a clean sweep for the rest of this card to keep my average up.

My record: 4-3

Poirier-Garza: MMA Fans Are Idiots

In round 2, Garza did the smart thing and took the fight to the ground. People immediately booed. They didn’t even give the fight time to get “boring.” You guys that immediately boo any ground fighting need to stick with boxing and kickboxing. This sport might not be for you.

As for the fight, there was good news and bad news for me. The good news is that there was indeed a 2nd-round submission. The bad news is that Poirier got it. Dammit. Joe Rogan said it best: Poirier really scouted Garza well. He had an answer to everything Garza was trying to do.

My record: 4-4

Henderson-Guida: Redefining the Laws of Physics

Einstein doesn't have squat on these two.

This fight was boring. Neither guy came to fight. What a shame.

Okay, that was fantastic. I was surprised Guida won a single round, which occurred on one score card, but both guys came to fight. If you didn’t enjoy this fight, you aren’t a fight fan. That’s okay; different strokes for different folks, but this was the epitome of a fight as far as spectator sports are concerned.

My record: 5-4

Interlude: Someone Fire Lesnar

The production for UFC on Fox was pretty good, though I hope going forward Dana White isn’t one of the guys in the booth. His hard work has paid off, and he deserved to be in that booth tonight, but he isn’t the right guy for the job.

Similarly, though Herb Dean is the best MMA referee ever, Big John McCarthy deserved the assignment as referee for this fight.

Brock Lesnar, however, was a joke. First, he should have realized that last night wasn’t about him. All he could talk about was his fight against Overeem or his rematch against Velasquez. Second, he directly contradicted Dana White, pointing out correctly, but inappropriately, that dos Santos hasn’t fought the best wrestlers yet. I agree with the statement, but first impressions are important, and image is everything. This statement mildly discredited the legitimacy of dos Santos as a worthy challenger. If dos Santos had lost, new viewers might have come away with the impression that this was a set up for the champion to look good with an easy win.

This should be Lesnar’s last job in the broadcast booth until he retires or gets some serious coaching.

Still, this was a great start for the UFC in the mainstream. The only thing that was missing was the Henderson-Guida fight, which everyone with an IQ greater than 6 knew would be a great fight. Why that wasn’t on the 1-hour show as well is beyond me.

Velasquez-dos Santos: Making History

What did I say, huh? What did I say? Velasquez hasn’t fought a great striker, and when he fights a half-decent one (Cheik Kongo), he has no respsonse, getting hit in the head constantly.  A great striker (as far as MMA goes) will have the power and technique to knock out Velasquez every time. Now, add 13 months of ring rust to the equation, and his chances drop dramatically.

And you guys picked Velasquez?

Granted, there aren’t any heavyweights that strike as well as dos Santos, so Velasquez is far from done as a fighter. He wasn’t exposed as a chump. He simply doesn’t match up well against someone with knockout power, and it took one minute to prove that. I’m sure he’ll learn from this and come back stronger for it.

My record: 6-4

The Final Tally

Also not proven by this pick is that I’m some sort of genius. I went 6-4, which is only 60%. I slipped a little bit, now having a main card record of 45-24 (65%) and an overall record of 86-50 (63%). This assumes that the last five fights are main card fights. I still challenge any of the talking heads to place their published records against mine, but this wasn’t a good card for me. This is made worse by the fact that the Maryland Terps lost to Notre Dame badly, and the Washington Caps lost to the New Jersey Devils in overtime. If the Washington Redskins lose to the Miami Dolphins tomorrow, I might climb a clock tower.

Make sure to listen to Fight Fans Radio Monday through Thursday at 3pm for MMA news and analysis. Also listen in on Saturdays at 3pm before fight cards for my live Stupid Predictions™ segment.

Follow me on Twitter @MMADork
Follow Fight Fans Radio on Twitter @fightfansradio
Follow Erika Lewis on Twitter @FightFan_Erika
Follow the Ultimate Fighting Championship on Twitter @UFC
Follow Cain Velasquez on Twitter @cainmma
Follow Junior Dos Santos on Twitter @junior_cigano
Follow Benson Henderson on Twitter @SMOOTHone155
Follow Clay Guida on Twitter @clayguida
Follow Dustin Poirier on Twitter @DustinPoirier
Follow Pablo Garza on Twitter @PabloGarzaMMA
Follow Cub Swanson on Twitter @CubSwanson
Follow Ricardo Lamas on Twitter @RicardoLamasMMA
Follow Clay Harvison on Twitter @ClayHeavyMetal
Follow DaMarques Johnson on Twitter @DaMarques_UFC
Follow Norifumi Yamamoto on Twitter when he decides Twitter is worth joining. He hasn’t yet.
Follow Darren Uyenoyama on Twitter @d_uyenoyama (unverified account)
Follow Mackens Semerzier on Twitter @MackDaMenaceMMA
Follow Robert Peralta on Twitter if you can find his Twitter handle. I couldn’t.
Follow Alex Caceres on Twitter @BruceLeeroyGlow
Follow Cole Escovedo on Twitter @coleescovedo
Follow Mike Pierce on Twitter @MikePierce170
Follow Paul Bradley on Twitter @paulbradley184
Follow Matt Lucas on Twitter if you can find his Twitter handle. I couldn’t.
Follow Aaron Rosa on Twitter @aaronrosamma

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