UFC 139 Postmortem and Rondy Rousey Earning Her Shot

Posted: November 20, 2011 in MMA, UFC
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

First things first: This is the future of mixed martial arts:

Told ya she was the real deal.

Way back in June, I told you that Ronda Rousey was the real deal. At 4-0, it seems premature to give her a title shot, but aren’t we just wasting our time right now watching her not fight for championship gold? She announced after her destruction of Julia Budd that she wanted to drop down to 135 and face Sarah Kaufman and then Miesha Tate, the current Strikeforce bantamweight champion. It’s strange to see a 4-0 fighter get a shot at the belt, but there’s simply nothing else for her to do. Honestly, I don’t think Miesha will last any longer than anyone else Ronda has faced. BTW, Ronda’s longest professional fight has been 49 seconds, so that’s quite a claim I’m making.

UFC 139

Another Great Card

Sadly, I didn’t get to see the UFC 139 card last night. Justin told me that the Henderson-Rua fight was one of the best ever. I’ll try to watch a replay of these fights, but because I haven’t so far, my postmortem will be short. I went 9-3 last night, but came into the main event without a single bad pick. That seems strange, but it leaves me with a record of 47-27 (64%) for the main cards and 95-53 (64%) overall (going back to my first Stupid Predictions article for UFC 129).

Dan Henderson vs. Mauricio Rua

Henderson should be next in line (after Chael Sonnen) for Anderson Silva. Rua should learn to accept his role as a gatekeeper.

EDIT: I’ve watched the fight. Hendo clearly won rounds 1-3. Round 4 was at best a draw for Shogun. I gave a slight edge to Hendo, though. Most of the fight was fought on their feet, meaning effective striking should have highest priority, and Hendo did the most damage there. On the ground, Shogun was better, but by no means good enough to overcome the higher priority effective striking. In fact, if you weighed them evenly, Hendo’s striking was probably slightly more dominant than Shogun’s groundwork. Round 5 could be argued a 10-7, but that would be a really tough sell, and round 3 could have been scored 10-8 for Hendo. At best for Shogun, I have Hendo winning rounds 1-3, even in round 4, and 10-7 in round 5, which would be a draw, but I actually score it 10-9, 10-9, 10-9, 10-9, 8-10, which is a 48-46 Hendo. Also note, though, that scoring fights is about first impressions, and my first impression was tainted by my knowledge of how it ended. That might be screwing with my scoring of the fight.

My record: 1-0

Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles

Giving Faber a rematch against Dominick Cruz quickly would be boring. Instead, the UFC should have him first face Renan Barao (unless Barao is getting an immediate title shot). I don’t know what to do with Bowles. He has to start over again, earning his way back into the mix.

EDIT: I’ve watched the fight. People have said he looked much better than he did against Cruz, making the immediate rematch appropriate. It isn’t. Brian Bowles isn’t Dominick Cruz, so Uriah isn’t a different fighter. In fact, I can’t believe I have to tell anyone that Faber is the same fighter considering it’s been only a few months since Cruz-Faber 2. I imagine we’ll see the same thing in Cruz-Faber 3, so I’d rather than fight occur later, when at least some emotional build up has occurred.

My record: 2-0

Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le

I’m happy Silva didn’t take another brutal knockout, but if he keeps fighting, it will. I suspect ring rust saved him from a concussion. I’d like to see Silva retire and Le sign a new movie contract.

EDIT: I’ve watched the fight. This fight went nothing like I expected. The one advantage I gave to Silva was stylistic, but Le was clearly suffering from ring rust. Despite that, Le was winning the fight. He clearly had round 1, and he probably was winning round 2. Le gets the nod for round 2 because he was the more active fighter, though it’s important to note that nothing Le was doing was actually hurting Silva. At some point near the middle of Round 2, it became a matter of time before Le would tire out and be unable to do his thing. What this shows to me is that Le could be a legitimate UFC fighter, but if he spends most of the year filming movies, he’ll never live up to his potential.

My record: 2-1

Rick Story vs. Martin Kampmann

This went exactly as I said except that the judges apparently didn’t drop the ball. Again, I find myself happy for the loss. Good for Kampmann.

My record: 2-2

Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury

Well now. Neither ring rust nor a lack of focus affected Bonnar. Still, if he’s going to be fighting only once per year, he’ll never get in the mix, so what’s the point? He should step aside for the good of the sport. Kingsbury needs to start over, as it’s apparent he was completely outclassed last night.

My record: 2-3

Ryan Bader vs. Jason Brilz

Bader did better than I expected, but against a fighter on his way out of the UFC.

EDIT: I’ve watched the fight. So what? Bader won’t be able to string together a good set of wins. This fight did nothing to prove otherwise.

My record: 3-3

Michael McDonald vs. Alex Soto

When we were discussing this fight on Fight Fans Radio, I pointed out that the only thing I could think of as explaining this matchmaking was that Joe Silva saw something in Alex Soto that suggested his remarkable success was legitimate, and not the result of fighting in the minor leagues. I guess I was wrong.

EDIT: I’ve watched the fight. Dammit. I love when a fighter loves to fight. Soto seemed almost as excited as Mike Easton did when he got his first shot at the UFC. It must have been heartbreaking to have lost that fight. I hope they give him another chance, and Soto improve his game to stay worthy.

My record: 4-3

Chris Weidman vs. Tom Lawlor

Everyone will be sorry to see Lawlor leave the UFC, but we’ll quickly forget him as long as guys like Chris Weidman keep putting on fantastic shows.

EDIT: I’ve watched the fight. Lawlor looked like Tom Lawlor. If he came in looking like Paul Varleans or Big Jon Hess, he would have kept his job. Now, I think we might see him in Bellator. This isn’t a bad thing from our perspective, but it sucks for him. Weidman, on the other hand, looked sharp.

My record: 5-3

Nick Pace vs. Miguel Torres

Torres can’t finish anymore, but this was apparently a solid win. Pace, on the other hand, is in a two-fight losing streak and is 1-3 in his time with Zuffa. This is probably the last we’ll see him, but if we do see him again, it’ll be in a loser-leaves-town or lamb-to-the-slaughter fight.

My record: 6-3

Gleison Tibau vs. Rafael dos Anjos

I was disappointed that Tibau didn’t manage a submission, but I still like him as a fighter, so I’m happy I got this one right.

My record: 7-3

Danny Castillo vs. Shamar Bailey

Castillo is holding steady, and Bailey is out. We won’t miss him.

EDIT: I’ve watched the fight. Castillo completely owned Bailey’s wrestling, which is supposedly his strength. Joe Rogan let us know, as Bailey was about to lose, just how “brilliant” Bailey was fighting.

My record: 8-3

Matt Brown vs. Seth Baczynski

I really hope the UFC doesn’t give Matt Brown a chance to redeem himself. He should’ve been fired some time ago. Baczynski is on a tear but against ho-hum competition. The UFC should give him a chance to prove himself against a solid fighter.

EDIT: I’ve watched the fight. The real story is that Joe Rogan clearly wanted Brown to win, finding every excuse he could to tell us how well Brown was doing, even as he was losing, and even after he lost. I hate that. You’re supposed to be objective. If you want to be friends with these fighters, find another job.

My record: 9-3

Make sure to listen to Fight Fans Radio Monday through Thursday at 3pm for MMA news and analysis. Also listen in on Saturdays at 3pm before fight cards for my live Stupid Predictions™ segment.

Follow me on Twitter @MMADork
Follow Fight Fans Radio on Twitter @fightfansradio
Follow Erika Lewis on Twitter @FightFan_Erika
Follow the Ultimate Fighting Championship on Twitter @UFC
Follow Dan Henderson on Twitter @danhendo
Follow Mauricio Rua on Twitter @ShogunRua
Follow Urijah Faber on Twitter @UrijahFaber
Follow Brian Bowles on Twitter @Brian_Bowles
Follow Wanderlai Silva on Twitter @WandFC
Follow Cung Le on Twitter @CungLe185
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Follow Jason Brilz on Twitter @JasonBrilz
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Follow Alex Soto on Twitter @sotomma
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