Posts Tagged ‘machida’

I don’t do my research anymore, so my picks are even more suspect than ever, but I’m inspired to take another shot at it because of a couple of interesting fights on the card. I’m picking only those fights where I already know the fighters.


George Roop v. Rob Font

I’m still quite bitter that Roop lost to Hioki, ruining what would otherwise have been a perfect night of picks for me*.

Roop by decision.

* Okay, so I made a sentimental pick that ruined the perfect score anyway, but based on my discussion of the fight on Fight Fans Radio, it’s clear I knew Nelson would beat CroCop.


Chris Camozzi v. Bruno Santos

Bruno who?

Camozzi by decision.


Uriah Faber v. Alex Caceres

This is a ridiculously one-sided match up, but what else is the UFC to do? Uriah can’t beat Barao or Cruz but is head and shoulders above everyone else. They have to put him against lesser talent that has no chance. Of course, now that T.J. Dillashaw is champ, Uriah has an opening to get back into the title picture without everyone saying, “Been there; done that,” but this fight was already booked.

Faber by 1st-round dismantling (KO/TKO).


Uriah Hall v. Thago Santos

Yeah, Hall can throw a wheel kick. Do you know who else can throw a wheel kick? Me. It was my signature kick when I got my black belt in TKD. We measured it, and the power was scary. However, I won’t be winning a UFC championship anytime soon, and neither will Hall. If he connects with them against people on the UFC roster, then maybe we can stop calling that kick a fluke, but until that point, it’s not a selling point for picking fights.

Santos by decision.


Stefan Struve v. Matt Mitrione

A year ago, this was an easy pick, but Struve’s heart condition not only sidelined his fighting but also his training. I can’t believe he’s as sharp as he was.

Mitrione by 1st or 2nd round KO/TKO.


Ronda Rousey v. Alexis Davis

Now it’s time for my customary “I told you so.” I predicted all of this long before Dana White or even Scott Coker knew Rousey existed. However, while I certainly don’t wish ill will on her, she’s now “on my list.” I take partial credit for getting her a title shot against Tate when she did. She would have eventually done so without my help, but I’m responsible for getting her that shot about 6 months earlier than she did (with a serious hat tip to Erika Lewis). And before you call bullshit, Ronda acknowledged this in an interview; she just didn’t name me. She said “someone on Twitter” got the ball rolling. Trust me when I say I don’t want to be in the spotlight, but I found that a bit odd. Of course, none of this affects how I’m picking these fights.

Ronda by 1st round armbar or whatever else she chooses. There’s simply no one to challenge her in WMMA right now.

Please note: I’m not taking credit for her bronze medal, her actual winning of the title, her general self-promotion, or her harai-goshi. That’s all Ronda, and she should be proud of all four (and so much more).


Chris Weidman v. Lyoto Machida

Contrary to what some armchair fighters have said, Weidman’s wins over Silva were not flukes. He beat Anderson twice. Contrary to what Weidman himself has said, most people recognize that Weidman’s wins weren’t flukes. He’s not “underrated” or “not being given the credit he deserves.” However, I’m still picking against him. This is about how fighters match up against one another, and Weidman is almost tailor-made for Lyoto. Have a nice nap, Chris.

Machida by 2nd round KO/TKO.


Follow me @MMADork. Or don’t. I really don’t like the spotlight.


In light of the recent announcement by Dana White (and implicitly confirmed by Jones and perhaps by Machida, too) that Jon Jones will be defending his UFC light heavyweight title against former champion, Lyoto Machida, I remind you of a few of my posts relevant to this fight. The first, What’s the Formula to Beat Jonny Bones Jones?, is about the one hole in Jones’s game. The second, Machida’s Unsolvability, discusses why and how stylistic matchups matter. The third, Dream Matchup: Lyoto “the Dragon” Machida v. Jonny “Bones” Jones, compares the two fighters and predicts how the fight will unfold. All three of these posts have stood the test of time. Nothing that’s happened since their initial posting changes my perspective (except that I’ve changed my mind on who would win in a GSP-Silva match-up). I guess I’ve already given you my Stupid Prediction™ for this one. 🙂

By the way, I couldn’t be happier with this announcement. As I’ve said on Fight Fans Radio, this is the last true test for Jones. Machida is the only fighter left that stylistically matches up well against Bones, and of the three (Quinton Jackson and Mauricio Rua), he’s the best match-up. If Jones wins, the light heavyweight division becomes like the middleweight and welterweight divisions in that only a case of food poisoning or freak injury could possibly dethrone the champion. Mark my words, though; this will be Jones’s toughest challenge.

Make sure to listen to Fight Fans Radio Monday through Thursday at 3pm for MMA news and analysis. Also listen in on Saturdays at 3pm before fight cards for my live Stupid Predictions™ segment.

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Jonny Bones JonesMachida

I recently did analyses of two of my favorite fighters, former UFC lightheavyweight champion Lyoto “the Dragon” Machida and current UFC lightheavyweight champion Jonny “Bones” Jones. This post is written in that context, so if you haven’t read the prior posts, this one might be confusing to read at times. Go give them a read. I’ll wait.

Done? Great. Let’s move on.

One of the questions flowing through the tubes of the internet is how this fight would go down. While not generating nearly as much buzz as Anderson Silva v. George St. Pierre, this fight is far more likely to happen (or at least, will happen 1 year sooner) and has less analysis attached to it. There’s no sense in me providing yet another article on Silva-GSP. I’ll just say GSP by decision and leave at that.

This fight, however, clearly has a future unless one of these fighters loses, which is something I don’t anticipate. It also involves two guys at the top of their division, and it’s the same division for both of them. Unlike GSP, Lyoto doesn’t have to move up (or down) in weight to challenge for Jones’s title.

As I discussed, Jones’ sole chink in his armor is his arrogance, and having seen his behavior lately, it’s apparent to me that he’s really enjoying his success. Of course, we all would, but that comes with a price. He needs to be better than the rest of us – more grounded – or he could lose his title quickly. I don’t know if he will humble himself, so I’m going to have to analyze this fight in two different ways. First, I’ll assume he stays grounded (both literally and figuratively) and fights smartly, relying on wrestling to take down and ground out a victory. Second, I’ll assume he fights arrogantly and tries to outstrike the striker.

As for Machida, I don’t see Machida trying to prove anything to anyone, so his approach to the fight won’t be much of a variable. He’ll plan a strategy designed to maximize his chances at success. I have no concerns of arrogance for this guy.

Scenario #1: Jon Jones Plays It Safe

In this scenario, Bones does exactly what he’s supposed to do. He uses his striking merely to close the distance – he can’t just bull rush in – and eventually scores a takedown. Once he’s on the ground, his wrestling is so strong that I have no doubt he’ll keep Lyoto down there. At this point, the fight becomes academic. The only thing I’ve ever seen from Lyoto on the ground is a couple of quick strikes and then a quick stand up. I’ve never seen him on his back other than the second fight with Mauricio Shogun Rua, and we all know how that turned out for him. I don’t see Lyoto getting out from under Jones. The best I see is that Lyoto avoids the takedowns for the entire first round, getting midway through the second round before taking a nap.

Bones by TKO/KO, Round 2.

Scenario #: Jon Jones Tries to Outstrike the Striker

This is actually the most likely scenario, and it’s the one giving Lyoto an opportunity for an upset. I don’t know how Jones’s spinning elbows connect against professional fighters, but one thing’s certain: They don’t have good reach. Those things aren’t going to land against a fighter like Machida who’s fighting from an atypically far distance. I also anticipate Lyoto getting out of the way of any flying knees Bones tries to launch from a distance. Forget that goofy stuff. It isn’t going to land against Machida.

In terms of what is going to land, Bones does employ his kicks well when needed, and they’ll be needed here to do some damage from a distance, which is where the fight will be fought. Bones’s aggression will work against him, as Lyoto loves to counterstrike. Anything thrown while airborne is easy to counter (at least by a counterstriking expert) because you know the exact trajectory of the strike and the striker. This could be the difference that has Bones falling into a shot to the jaw; however . . .

I’d still bet money on Bones winning. Bones has the “it” factor, and no, I can’t describe that any better than you can. He’s just the kind of guy that finds a way to win. Even if everything I say here represents the most brilliant analysis of fighters ever done, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bones threw a wrench into my analysis by doing something completely out of character, departing from the style we’ve all come to expect from him. I don’t necessarily think he’d have to map out that game plan ahead of time. His instincts are probably good enough to develop a brand new style on the spot in response to whatever Lyoto throws at him.

Bones by decision.

So, either way, Bones wins it.

Of course, it ain’t over ’til it’s over, and it can’t be over ’til it’s signed. I hope we get to see this fight.

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