The Latest Bandwagon for MMA Journalists #ufc #mma cc: @rondarousey

It seems that we have another hot topic in MMA journalism. Someone wrote an article pointing out the reasoning for Ronda Rousey’s dominance; namely: Only in Judo do women martial artists have the infrastructure to provide them the competition necessary to develop true talent. Now that one person has written it, everyone is writing it, yet passing off the idea as their own. Example #1 here. Example #2 here. You might be asking, “Which one is not a plagiarist? Who said it first?”

The answers are “none of the above” and “MMADork.”

Rob, the Wise Old Sage

Without meaning to take away from Ronda’s admirable work ethic, attitude, or talent, I made this observation several times on Fight Fans Radio, then posted it here about six months after first discussing it. If you’re not interested in wading through all that text, here’s what I wrote:

As for [the fight between Ronda Rousey and Miesha Tate], those [claiming that Ronda hasn’t earned the title shot] just don’t understand that there is only one well-developed, high-quality combat sports organization that’s available to women, and that’s USA Judo [error deleted]. USA Judo is highly organized, highly competitive, and international in scope. Miesha Tate wrestling in high school against two other women statewide (yes, I’m exaggerating) does not prepare her the same way Judo prepared Ronda. The fact that Miesha trains with men doesn’t change the equation. Every professional combat athlete will tell you that training with the best doesn’t compare to actually competing against the best. When it came to competing, Miesha simply didn’t have the same level of competition because 1) there aren’t many competitors in the first place, and 2) she didn’t fight people beyond her relatively small region. Thus, the complaint that Ronda lacks experience is actually ridiculous. Miesha is far too green for this fight….”

(emphasis added). Last modified January 8, 2012.

Once again, I find myself about 2-3 years ahead of the curve. As with my 2011 comments predicting Ronda’s impact on MMA (quotes below. Last modified June 22, 2011), MMA Journalists are finally saying what I’ve been saying for years. Their writing has an air of arrogance as if they’ve personally made this great discovery. Well, so does mine, but at least I’ve earned the right to be such a snob about it. In fact, considering that Ronda Rousey herself followed my writings before she had such a busy schedule, I wouldn’t be surprised if these articles started popping up because someone found my blog and outright plagiarized it.

What’s the Point?

Believe it or not, this isn’t about me telling you how brilliant I am; quite the opposite. It’s about telling how little a deal this is, and thus showing you that MMA Journalism, even after all of these years, is still very much a joke. That’s the big deal. Anyone with 1) knowledge of her judo career and 2) a capability to apply inductive reasoning could have predicted and understood Ronda’s success. I’m simply pointing out that MMA journalists have neither despite it being part of their job description to have both. After all of these years of reporting and research, you’d expect that they’d finally be on target. You’d be wrong.

Yeah, I just love the media.

And I am brilliant. 🙂

Follow me on Twitter @MMADork

P.S. What I wrote in June, 2011 is here:

Watch for this one. She could very well be the future of women’s MMA, and she definitely lends credibility to the women’s division…. I expect to see her in Strikeforce soon. Moreover, it will be hard for Dana White to continue to ignore women’s MMA with women like Ronda in the mix.

Will This Be the First Loss of @RondaRousey’s #UFC Career? #MMA

Image c/o UFC

No. That really would be a stupid prediction.

Ronda by TKO/KO in round 1.

I also have Little Nog beating Shogun, Big Nog beating Streuve, Soa Palelei beating Bigfoot, and Demian Maia beating Neil Magny.

Follow me on Twitter @MMADork

Stupid Predictions #UFC175: Why the Hell Not? #MMA

I don’t do my research anymore, so my picks are even more suspect than ever, but I’m inspired to take another shot at it because of a couple of interesting fights on the card. I’m picking only those fights where I already know the fighters.

 

George Roop v. Rob Font

I’m still quite bitter that Roop lost to Hioki, ruining what would otherwise have been a perfect night of picks for me*.

Roop by decision.

* Okay, so I made a sentimental pick that ruined the perfect score anyway, but based on my discussion of the fight on Fight Fans Radio, it’s clear I knew Nelson would beat CroCop.

 

Chris Camozzi v. Bruno Santos

Bruno who?

Camozzi by decision.

 

Uriah Faber v. Alex Caceres

This is a ridiculously one-sided match up, but what else is the UFC to do? Uriah can’t beat Barao or Cruz but is head and shoulders above everyone else. They have to put him against lesser talent that has no chance. Of course, now that T.J. Dillashaw is champ, Uriah has an opening to get back into the title picture without everyone saying, “Been there; done that,” but this fight was already booked.

Faber by 1st-round dismantling (KO/TKO).

 

Uriah Hall v. Thago Santos

Yeah, Hall can throw a wheel kick. Do you know who else can throw a wheel kick? Me. It was my signature kick when I got my black belt in TKD. We measured it, and the power was scary. However, I won’t be winning a UFC championship anytime soon, and neither will Hall. If he connects with them against people on the UFC roster, then maybe we can stop calling that kick a fluke, but until that point, it’s not a selling point for picking fights.

Santos by decision.

 

Stefan Struve v. Matt Mitrione

A year ago, this was an easy pick, but Struve’s heart condition not only sidelined his fighting but also his training. I can’t believe he’s as sharp as he was.

Mitrione by 1st or 2nd round KO/TKO.

 

Ronda Rousey v. Alexis Davis

Now it’s time for my customary “I told you so.” I predicted all of this long before Dana White or even Scott Coker knew Rousey existed. However, while I certainly don’t wish ill will on her, she’s now “on my list.” I take partial credit for getting her a title shot against Tate when she did. She would have eventually done so without my help, but I’m responsible for getting her that shot about 6 months earlier than she did (with a serious hat tip to Erika Lewis). And before you call bullshit, Ronda acknowledged this in an interview; she just didn’t name me. She said “someone on Twitter” got the ball rolling. Trust me when I say I don’t want to be in the spotlight, but I found that a bit odd. Of course, none of this affects how I’m picking these fights.

Ronda by 1st round armbar or whatever else she chooses. There’s simply no one to challenge her in WMMA right now.

Please note: I’m not taking credit for her bronze medal, her actual winning of the title, her general self-promotion, or her harai-goshi. That’s all Ronda, and she should be proud of all four (and so much more).

 

Chris Weidman v. Lyoto Machida

Contrary to what some armchair fighters have said, Weidman’s wins over Silva were not flukes. He beat Anderson twice. Contrary to what Weidman himself has said, most people recognize that Weidman’s wins weren’t flukes. He’s not “underrated” or “not being given the credit he deserves.” However, I’m still picking against him. This is about how fighters match up against one another, and Weidman is almost tailor-made for Lyoto. Have a nice nap, Chris.

Machida by 2nd round KO/TKO.

 

Follow me @MMADork. Or don’t. I really don’t like the spotlight.

Stupid Predictions: #UFC169. C’mon, @mikewiseguy! Cover this sport! #mma

Okay, so here are my picks for tonight:

Makdessi v. Patrick

I love Makdessi, but for once I’m ignoring my heart. Patrick by decision.

Varner v. Trujillo

Varner has his moments. Something tells me tonight will be one. Varner by KO/TKO.

Mir v. Overeem

This is a question of who will underachieve the least. If Mir would stop trying to be a boxer, I’d have him all the way, but he just doesn’t get it. Overeem by KO/TKO.

Aldo v. Lamas

The past few months have reminded us that no one is unbeatable, but I have trouble believing Lamas will be the one to finally (recently) solve Aldo. Aldo by decision.

Barao v. Faber

This is a championship match, so the seemingly unstoppable Faber will choke again. It’s not that it won’t be a good fight, mind you. It will, but Barao will win. Barao by decision.

Follow me @mmadork

Stupid Predictions: #UFC168 CC: @MikeWiseGuy #MMA

I’m really too busy to write about this, but I’m always hoping to find a way to get a legitimate journalist to cover MMA, and Mike Wise of the Washington Post is on the fence about doing so. One of these days, maybe something will get him curious enough to watch, then interested enough to write. Tonight might be the night. The women have arrived, and the greatest MMA fighter ever is back to reclaim his title.

Manny Gamburyan v. Denis Siver

This is a toss up. Siver used to be good, but now he’s at the level of Gamburyan. Quite an endorsement, eh? When in doubt, I root for the judo guy.

Gamburyan by decision

Michael Johnson v. Gleison Tibau

I still don’t know why Johnson gets such a push when so many fighters are getting their pink slips for losing a single match.

Tibau by decision

Uriah Hall v. Chris Leben

Leben’s best days are behind him. While Hall is still developing, I think he’s good enough to get the win.

Hall by decision

Jim Miller v. Fabricio Camoes

Miller has disappointed me lately. I actually see this as a punishment for that. If he can’t beat Camoes, he’s in danger of getting bounced by the UFC. I never thought I’d say this so soon.

Miller by submission

Josh Barnett v. Travis Browne

I can’t see why so many people are picking Barnett. No way.

Browne by 3rd round KO/TKO

Ronda Rousey v. Miesha Tate

There is absolutely no reason to think this fight isn’t going the same way all of Ronda’s fights go. It’s a complete no-brainer. For those who hate Ronda, I say think with your brain, not your heart. And to everyone, I remind you, I told you so … 2-1/2 years ago, well before Dana White and Scott Coker knew she existed.

Rousey by 1st round submission

Chris Weidman v. Anderson Silva

Weidman has the style and skill to beat Silva, but he showed last time that he’s susceptible to being pulled into Silva’s game plan. Lightning doesn’t strike twice. 99.99% of the time, Silva wins the striking battle. Despite what most are saying, I think Anderson goes in there and does the same goofy dance he always does, gets under Weidman’s skin, and knocks him out. The only question is whether it will take more than one round. I’ll play it safe.

Silva by 2nd round KO/TKO

And now I’m off to Baileys in Ballston Mall. If you’re in Arlington, say hi.

Unless I don’t like you.

Follow me @MMADork
Follow Mike Wise @MikeWiseGuy

Stupid Predictions: #UFC167 Edition cc: @MikeWiseguy @FightFansRadio @ufc #mma

So, my last published picks were embarrassing, but I went 4 for 5 on the last card. I regretted my decision not to publish what would have been redeeming,  and I’m on a mission to get Mike Wise to start writing about MMA, so I’m back at it. Unfortunately, I’m on my phone, so no formatting, pretty pictures, or links to sources. I’m just giving picks for the fights I’m willing to pick. We’ll settle up later.

Story – Once a contender. Tonight, I think he’ll be good enough.
Herman – He’ll get back on track (or lose his job).
Cerrone – He’ll also get back on track.
Koscheck – Hate him, but he’ll win after faking an eye poke.
McDonald – Well, duh.
Sonnen – I’d pick him to beat Muhammad Ali. I can’t pick against him.
GSP – No title is safe, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Stupid Predictions is Back! (Not Really) CC: @FightFansRadio @MikeWiseGuy @UFC #UFC165 #MMA

Two Titles on the Line
c/o UFC.com

For those who read my blog, you must remember my Stupid Predictions segment where I constantly outclassed the “professional journalists” that cover MMA. My record is … well, on the record. I always published it along with the records of others who were paid money to make predictions. I stopped doing Stupid Predictions (and Fight Fans Radio, to which you should still be listening!) because I ran out of time to properly research, which would have inevitably placed me on the level of those “journalists.” However, I recently engaged in a Twitter conversation with Mike Wise of the Washington Post and asked when he would start writing about MMA. His response wasn’t what I wanted to hear, but I have at least some hope that a real journalist will eventually start covering this sport. Then you won’t need me anyway.

In the meantime, I decided to dust off my MMADork blog and write another Stupid Predictions post, not so much to fix what’s wrong with MMA Journalism, but just to get a particular prediction off my chest. To keep things from getting too ridiculous, I’ll stick to the main card; I’m really not what I once was. But John Makdessi will win.

Let’s do this.

Pat Healy v. Khabib Nurmagomedov

Good night.
c/o StephanieJoplin.com

Khabib Nurmagomedov is really good. He’s undefeated at 20-0, and he’s proved himself capable of finishing fights, doing so 70% of the time, split evenly between KOs/TKOs and submissions. However …

I have a lot of faith in Pat Healy’s talent. Pat Healy choked out Jim Miller. Think about that for a second. Pat Healy choked out Jim Miller. That shows a ridiculous amount of talent, and if anything, his marijuana use would’ve slowed him down. I understand why the commission had to overturn the victory, but these picks are about who’s more talented, not who’s breaking technical rules. If Pat is high tonight, it’ll be declared a no contest, but otherwise, he’ll hand Nurmagomedov his first loss in a tough match.

Healy by decision

Costas Philippou v. Francis Carmont

Costas Philippou sort of snuck up on me. I never thought much of him, but he steadily amassed a ton of wins, some against some contenders. His only losses were a unanimous decision in 2011, and a split decision in 2008. Of his 12 victories, over half (7) are finishes. Of course, Joe Silva, matchmaker for the UFC, knows his job, and he’s given Philippou a good matchup. Carmont has won his last 10 fights, and if it goes to the ground, Carmont has the advantage. However, Carmont’s competition hasn’t been as stiff as Philippou’s, and I don’t think he’s guaranteed to get the takedown.

As with Daniel Cormier, I’m sick of picking against Philippou and looking like an idiot for doing so. I’ll take my chances that his run continues.

Philippou by 2nd round KO/TKO

Brendan Schaub v. Matt Mitrione

Brendan Schaub started out with so much potential, but he’s since found himself cleanly beating only the (relatively) low-level guys, while eking out decisions or being put to sleep when fighting the higher-level guys. He may one day meet the expectations we had for him, but I’ll acknowledge it only after I’ve seen it.

Matt Mitrione might not be a fan favorite, and losing to Cheick Kongo is nothing to brag about, but he wins fights, and usually finishes them. Losing to a top contender like Roy Nelson is not an indication you can’t handle Brendan Schaub.

Mitrione by 1st round KO/TKO

Renan Barao v. Eddie Wineland

Renan Barao is the bantamweight champ, and he hasn’t lost since 2005. One might counter that argument by pointing out he’s an old man that’s been fighting too long, but that’d be a bad assumption. He’s only 26 years old, and there’s no slow-down in his step. He can knock you out, submit you, or out-athletic you by going the distance and getting a decision. Also of note is that he’s done these things to some top-notch competition.

Then there’s Eddie Wineland, who hasn’t lost since … 2011. He’s hot and cold, and that won’t cut it against a talent like Barao. Wineland is good enough to be in the UFC, but he won’t win the belt tonight.

Barao by 2nd round submission

However, I wouldn’t be shocked if I got this wrong. Why? See my next entry.

Jon Jones v. Alexander Gustafsson

Don’t look too closely if you’re squeamish.
c/o Cagewall.com

Finally, we get to the main event, which is the one for which I’m dying to make a pick. The smart money is on Jon Jones, but I’m sick and tired of being smart. It’s clear that no title is safe, and that goes back to April 30, 2011, when George St. Pierre should have been medically retired from his fight against a completely over-matched Jake Shields. (An accidental eye poke left GSP temporarily blind in one eye, which was hidden from the doctors.) Lately, the number of examples of unbeatable champs being exposed as vulnerable is staggering. Anthony Pettis won his rematch against a very different, much improved Benson Henderson, finishing Bendo by armbar in the 1st round and capturing lightweight gold. Anderson Silva, who hadn’t lost since 2006 (by DQ), and who really hadn’t lost since 2004, was knocked out in the 2nd round by a wrestler. This brings us to the man of the hour, Jon Jones, who barely won his last two fights. He was almost armbarred by Vitor Belfort, and despite dominating Chael Sonnen, was 27 seconds away from being medically retired due to a broken toe.

*** No title is safe. *** (Did I emphasize that enough?)

I don’t believe that trends are caused by ghosts or some cosmic force like karma. There’s a scientific explanation for them, even if we don’t readily see it. In this case, the trend of champions losing their belts would fall in the realm of psychology, or perhaps sociology, and I’m not qualified to do an analysis in either area. I do know what I see, though, and what I see are champions slipping, and that includes Jones specifically. Once seen as unbeatable in their respective weight classes, they now are succumbing to the rust of old age, the arrogance of young age, or outright sloppiness. On the other hand, Gustafsson is typical of their opponents in that he’s both talented and hungry, having the best takedown percentage of any of Jones’s other challengers. I think he pulls off the upset, even if he has to rely on a medical retirement to do so. I won’t make my pick that specific though.

Gustafsson by decision.

The Paid Prognosticator

That’s it for me. Now let’s see how Sherdog’s expert, Tristen Critchfield, think’s it’ll go down.

Nurmagomedov by decision.
Philippou by decision or TKO.
Schaub by decision … unless he gets knocked out.
Barao by late submission or unanimous decision.
Jones by some sort of finish in the 3rd round.

So, I picked Healy, Mitrione and Gus; whereas Tristen picked Nurmagomedov, Schaub (sort of), and Jones. It’ll take a no-contest for us to come away with the same record. Let’s see if I’ve still got something in the tank.

Enjoy the fights!

Follow me @MMADork
Follow Fight Fans Radio @FightFansRadio
Follow Mike Wise @MikeWiseGuy, even though he doesn’t understand trademark law*

* P.S. Sorry. I had to go there.

Stupid Predictions Lite: This Is What Happens When You Don’t Research #UFC156 #MMA

Last night didn’t go well for me. Let’s look at the results.

Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar

Aldo didn’t fade, so my chances of a decent pick prediction percentage did.

Rashad Evans vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

I was completely uninterested in this fight. I hear Nogueira won, which means I didn’t.

Alistair Overeem vs. Antonio Silva

Overeem got complacent. He should have won in 60 seconds. What a disappointment, but I have no gripe with Bigfoot. Good for him.

Jon Fitch vs. Demian Maia

In my defense, no one picked Maia.

Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian McCall

I got this one right, but I feel dirty. McCall was game.

Evan Dunham vs. Gleison Tibau

Dunham by decision or 3rd round KO/TKO. More than likely, a decision.

Did I say that? Damn, I still got it. At least until you see my record at the bottom.

Tyron Woodley vs. Jay Hieron

Yeah, I’m a dope.

Jacob Volkmann vs. Bobby Green

No, seriously; I’m a dope.

The Results

First, the bad news: My record is 2-6 (25%), which is pathetic. Blaming that on a plethora of upsets would be even more pathetic.

Now, the good news: The experts suck, too. Tristen Critchfield had only a couple more victories than I had, giving this “professional” a similarly pathetic record of 4-4 (50%) for the same 8 fights. This is from a professional. When I was researching, I had a pick percentage in the low 60’s on a bad day (upsets or not), with my best day in the 80s. Suddenly, I don’t feel so bad. Because I haven’t been hired as an analyst, you should. You’re getting the short end of the stick with these “journalists.”

I’m still pissed at Overeem.

Follow me @MMADork

Stupid #Predictions Lite: What the Hell? I Have Some Time. #UFC156 #MMA

I have a little bit of time on my hands, so here are some quick hits.

Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar

Aldo fades in the championship rounds, and Edgar takes over. Edgar by decision or possible 5th round TKO/KO.

Rashad Evans vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Rashad destroys Little Nog in embarrassing fashion. Seriously, why even sign this fight? Rashad by 2nd round TKO/KO after a brutal 1st round.

Alistair Overeem vs. Antonio Silva

Overeem by overhand … right … on the kisser. It’s a big target; hard to miss. Hey-yoo! Seriously, this is a 1st round KO. Silva was lucky to beat Travis Browne. He certainly isn’t in Overeem’s category.

Jon Fitch vs. Demian Maia

I love Demian Maia, but I can’t seriously pick him to beat the guy who just knows how to win in the UFC. If Fitch’s fight against Eric Silva wasn’t a fluke and represents the “new and improved” Jon Fitch, then it could actually be exciting. More likely, however, is Fitch grinding out a boring decision.

Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian McCall

Well, who else is either guy going to fight? There are only five people in the entire division. Benevidez by decision.

Evan Dunham vs. Gleison Tibau

I like both these guys. Dunham has been disappointing lately, but Tibau never finishes anyone. I’m going with Dunham. He’ll be able to keep separation from Tibau and pick him apart. It will take a while, though. Dunham by decision or 3rd round KO/TKO. More than likely, a decision.

Tyron Woodley vs. Jay Hieron

Hieron, I guess. Let’s say by decision.

Jacob Volkmann vs. Bobby Green

Volkman will put Green to sleep … with a political rant. Then he’ll beat him by 2nd round submission.

No picks on the remaining three fights.

Follow me on Twitter @MMADork

This Is Probably Why Miguel Torres Was Cut from the @UFC. Again.

As you might know by now, Miguel Torres was cut from the UFC. Dave Metzler has been cited as saying the “cut was the result of a ‘similar mistake,'” which is in turn referencing the rape van tweet that got Torres cut in December. Well, it turns out, I was personally involved in this mess! Torres was probably cut for tweeting the following (I’m still awaiting confirmation that this was the reason):

I heard Planned Parenthood wants to sponsor John Jones giving seminars about the pull out method.

There were a couple of retweets, including one (linked above) from Joseph Sandoval, a professional fighter, which lends credibility to the fact that the UFC saw it despite it’s later deletion from Torres’s tweet stream. I can’t believe that trained journalists have been unable to uncover this bit of information. It’s been published to Twitter. On second thought, I can believe it.

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Follow Joseph Sandoval on Twitter @JosephSandoval1